Sunday, 18 August 2013

Analyzing the big, distorted and confusing picture of what is happening in Egypt now. In this article I will help you to understand the different factors affecting Egyptian politics, and the reason behind the violence in the streets now.



Here are my classifications of Egyptian society, and an explanation of the role of each in what is happening now.

A –Supporters of the Military coup.
1-    The Military leaders. They can’t tolerate Egypt as a democratic country with a civilian president. They got used to ruling Egypt since 1952, and have lots of business, cuts, huge salaries and benefits that they don’t want to lose. They were chosen by Mubarak and many of them keep their positions from Mubarak’s time. Many of them can be accused of corruption. Some of them can’t tolerate the killing of civilians by the army and they don’t want to destroy the relationship between the army and people, but they have no hope because they are not in leading positions or have been kept under house arrest recently.
2-    Middle rank officers and soldiers. Have been trained to obey the rules, and those who don’t are shot dead. The army media is very strong and controls the information reaching them. They spread rumors and false news that the protestors possess weapons, to give the soldiers and officers a strong reason to open fire on the protestors.
3-    Police. Corrupt for a very long time. Most of the higher ranks have kept their positions from Mubarak’s time. They have been trained to hate opposition, Muslim Brotherhood and any group that comes from an Islamic religious background. They feel that they have been humiliated in the 2011 revolution when protestors took them down with rubble in the Egyptian streets. During the year of Mursi’s rule, he banned any police from carrying a weapon against a protest, not even the rubber bullets, only tear gas and sticks were allowed,. Now they are permitted to carry every kind of weapon and have a great chance for revenge. Police soldiers have been chosen based on their limited minds, so they can be brainwashed easily.
The most awful of the police practices is their use of criminals as their militia, to support them in their fight against the protestors and give them automatic weapons, and they show no mercy at all when dealing with the protestors. Also they use them to burn buildings and shoot people, to blame the protestors for doing so and create a reason to use guns against them.
4-    Media. Classified into three categories.
*The Egyptian official media paid and controlled by the government who say what their masters want them to say.
*The privately owned media, most of which are owned by business men who got so rich because of their connection with the Mubarak system, and they use their media to protect their investments. which would flourish better if they managed to get the corrupted regime back again.
Both pervious types are not neutral at all, changing the facts and encouraging hate against Mursi administrations, the Muslim Brotherhood and any other party that supports Mursi rule.
*Media started after the revolution by religious parties and that were supporting Mursi rule, all of which were shut down by the military leader after the coup.
5-Judging system. In the last 10 years the only qualification needed to join this career is to have a father or uncle in the system, or to pay a bribe if you are going along well with the police security measures. That created a strong lobby among this system that has family and business tides. In the higher level there are many honest judges, but they are never put in a leading position because they are not loyal enough to the system. Choosing who held the leading positions was always in the hands of Mubarak and his police government. The result was that they helped many corrupt high officials and police officers who are accused of killing protestors since the revolution started to escape justice. and also to give justifications for the military coup.
6-    High officials in different governmental administration levels.
Mostly corrupted, they became so rich and were left alone by the Mubarak regime, since they help corrupted business men and other corrupted high officials who are in services and share benefits with the Mubarak family and close officials. The corrupted high officials infected the whole administration system in Egypt’s government, so they can get employees to help and support them.   
7-    Political oppositions for Muslim Brotherhood and Mursi rule.
*Some hate the idea of Egypt being ruled by somebody who comes from an Islamic background, even if it was through a democratic election, because of theological differences and historical clashes with the Muslim Brotherhood and other religious parties.
*Others, who are very jealous after losing the elections against the Muslim Brotherhood and similar Islamic parties, see in supporting the military coup a great chance to get rid of their opposition, a better chance to win future elections.
8-    Individuals and political activists. Very much driven by a corrupt media and have built a point of view they don’t change for sociological reasons. They have problems adapting or listening to any other views or seeing evidence that might change their point of view, and which might make them not trusted among those who listen to them if they changed their view.
9-    Christians. Sorry to put them under a separate title. Unfortunately most Egyptian Christians but not all of them support the military coup, assuming that they will be in great danger if the Muslim Brotherhood held power, which is a media driven rumor through introducing the violence against Christians in middle Egypt during the 80th and 90th as if its sponsored by the Muslim brotherhood, but the fact is it was made by terrorist organization in the time when Muslim brotherhood disavowed violence officially.  Also they believe that native Egyptians were mostly Christians, and that Muslims were mostly immigrants since the Arab invitation in the 7th century.  The Egyptian church made an official statement after the extreme use of violence against protestors that they support the police and army operation to fight terrorism, as a clear statement for their position.
However, I know some Christians who show a good tolerance and were accepting of the Muslim Brotherhood rule.
10-    Films and Media producers. They are worried that a ruler from a Muslim background will restrict their freedom and creativity if it is against religious principals.
11-                      Some Arab countries. Ruled by dictatorship and they don’t want to see a success story for any Arab Spring, they don’t want it to encourage similar revolutions in their own countries, especially because the Muslim brotherhood is an international organization and has members in many Arab countries.


B – Anti coup and Pro Mursi
1-    The Muslim Brotherhood. They believe that they gained their positions through a democratic process and elections, and they have to stand and protest to get their rights back.
2-    Other Islamic parties. Trust any ruler who comes from a religious background, even if there is a theological difference between them, since they believe Islam is the religion of the majority of Egyptians and should influence the country’s constitution and rules.
3-    Other parties. Who lost the elections against the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mursi, and want to get rid of him through a democratic process such as having a strong lobby against him in the parliament or in the coming presidential elections.
4-    Individuals and activists. Like me, who see Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood are not qualified enough to run the country, but fought hard  to keep the democratic system, and who do not trust the military or any governmental member who used to serve Mubarak to run Egypt any more, since the army generals in power since 1952 and Egypt not improving.

What I expect to happen in the near future
The protest will continue. The police and army will keep using extreme violence against protestors in the streets. That might encourage some angry protestors to carry guns to revenge relatives or friends who were killed by the police and army. The situation could grow more dramatic if some religious leaders issue religious decrees to justify carrying weapons and fighting the police and army forces. This could into a civil war, which might start in middle and upper Egypt before spreading to the north.

What I expect to happen in the long term
The current government will fail economically, Egypt will suffer a big economic collapse because of the continuing protests, losing credibility among other nations, along with the collapse of the tourism business which is a significant source of Egypt’s income.  As a result, the coup supporters will lose their popularity and as a consequence they might lose any future elections to the Muslim Brotherhood or any other Islamic candidates. That might lead the government to influence and take procedures to fake the elections, as Mubarak used to do, and if they did this, the country will be ready for a third revolution.

What might happen to save Egypt now.
If honest members of the Military council revolt against the current head of the army, General Sissy, the leader of the Military Coup , and get rid of him, then lead a peaceful process for conciliation between all political parties, without exempting any party.
But most likely that is difficult to happen because of the strong ties and the mutual benefits between the army leaders.


5 comments:

  1. very clear , precise ,and neutral analysis Samir
    we expect the good for Egypt , we hope that people realize the magnitude of the disaster and started to deal with the situation consciously ,we hope some important and influential individuals in Egypt revive their consciencesin in that situation, and be able to collect the Egyptians with forgetting the differences, and maybe we can get out of this difficult ordeal

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  2. Samir, I am very disappointed in you that you would single out the Christians and say what you did about them. The Copts have enough problems with attacks on them and their Church's and discrimination without someone like you adding to the problems. If you are an example of a moderate Egyptian Muslim, can anyone doubt why so many Copts want to leave Egypt?

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    1. I have many Egyptian Christians friends and colleagues, seen my post and haven't felt what you felt and they still call me a moderate Muslim helping in bridging the gap. If we kept hiding from troubles and not talk about it, we will not find way to overcome it.
      There's an equal no of Egyptians, Christians and Muslims who are seeking immigration, and from the eye of a Christian friend (Adham), who serve in the Cave church, he sees no big problem Egyptian Christians facing in Egypt to leave their own country. If you like to talk with him, he is always in the Cave Church.

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  3. I have many Egyptian Christians friends and colleagues, seen my post and haven't felt what you felt and they still call me a moderate Muslim helping in bridging the gap. If we kept hiding from troubles and not talk about it, we will not find way to overcome it.
    There's an equal no of Egyptians, Christians and Muslims who are seeking immigration, and from the eye of a Christian friend (Adham), who serve in the Cave church, he sees no big problem Egyptian Christians facing in Egypt to leave their own country. If you like to talk with him, he is always in the Cave Church.

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  4. Samir, what are people saying about the three journalists sentenced yesterday? And what about all those death sentences for Morsi supporters?

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